Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#51
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#47
Pace67.7#181
Improvement+1.4#102

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#64
First Shot+3.0#84
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#85
Layup/Dunks+5.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#276
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+0.3#165

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#45
First Shot+5.0#49
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#67
Layups/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#17
Freethrows-1.1#242
Improvement+1.1#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four23.3% n/a n/a
First Round68.3% n/a n/a
Second Round24.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen5.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 111   UNC Asheville W 80-65 82%     1 - 0 +15.6 +12.7 +3.9
  Nov 15, 2016 214   @ Liberty W 64-59 85%     2 - 0 +4.2 -3.3 +7.7
  Nov 18, 2016 312   Binghamton W 81-42 97%     3 - 0 +26.5 +7.2 +21.3
  Nov 23, 2016 15   Baylor L 63-71 24%     3 - 1 +9.6 +3.5 +5.6
  Nov 24, 2016 89   St. John's W 75-69 70%     4 - 1 +11.0 +4.1 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2016 173   LSU W 85-74 84%     5 - 1 +10.7 +5.2 +5.1
  Nov 29, 2016 76   Princeton W 81-70 71%     6 - 1 +15.4 +13.3 +2.3
  Dec 03, 2016 64   Illinois L 46-64 57%     6 - 2 -9.5 -15.9 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2016 77   Georgia Tech L 73-76 OT 72%     6 - 3 +1.2 +1.2 +0.3
  Dec 10, 2016 131   @ Old Dominion W 67-64 72%     7 - 3 +7.2 +9.7 -2.0
  Dec 17, 2016 56   Middle Tennessee W 80-77 62%     8 - 3 +10.1 +17.8 -7.5
  Dec 22, 2016 260   Louisiana Monroe W 78-65 95%     9 - 3 +4.7 -2.7 +6.4
  Dec 27, 2016 336   Howard W 85-51 99%     10 - 3 +17.1 +9.6 +8.7
  Dec 30, 2016 109   @ George Mason W 73-64 66%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +15.0 -0.6 +15.2
  Jan 04, 2017 209   @ Duquesne W 94-87 84%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +6.6 +11.7 -5.8
  Jan 07, 2017 150   Massachusetts W 81-64 87%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +15.1 +10.2 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2017 113   George Washington W 85-55 82%     14 - 3 4 - 0 +30.5 +21.7 +12.5
  Jan 14, 2017 87   @ Davidson L 63-69 58%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +2.1 -5.2 +7.3
  Jan 18, 2017 192   @ Fordham L 67-69 OT 81%     14 - 5 4 - 2 -1.0 -5.8 +4.9
  Jan 22, 2017 139   La Salle W 90-52 86%     15 - 5 5 - 2 +36.8 +21.4 +18.7
  Jan 27, 2017 47   Dayton W 73-68 58%     16 - 5 6 - 2 +13.4 +13.2 +0.8
  Feb 01, 2017 88   Richmond W 81-74 77%     17 - 5 7 - 2 +9.7 +11.0 -1.1
  Feb 04, 2017 91   @ St. Bonaventure W 83-77 OT 61%     18 - 5 8 - 2 +13.5 +7.1 +5.8
  Feb 08, 2017 113   @ George Washington W 54-53 68%     19 - 5 9 - 2 +6.6 -5.4 +12.2
  Feb 11, 2017 87   Davidson W 74-60 76%     20 - 5 10 - 2 +17.1 +10.3 +8.2
  Feb 14, 2017 179   Saint Joseph's W 91-81 89%     21 - 5 11 - 2 +6.8 +12.6 -6.3
  Feb 17, 2017 88   @ Richmond W 84-73 60%     22 - 5 12 - 2 +18.8 +13.0 +5.7
  Feb 22, 2017 244   Saint Louis W 64-50 94%     23 - 5 13 - 2 +6.5 -6.0 +13.3
  Feb 25, 2017 49   @ Rhode Island L 59-69 38%     23 - 6 13 - 3 +3.4 -1.0 +3.5
  Mar 01, 2017 47   @ Dayton L 72-79 38%     23 - 7 13 - 4 +6.4 +8.9 -2.8
  Mar 04, 2017 109   George Mason W 72-60 81%     24 - 7 14 - 4 +12.9 +2.2 +11.3
  Mar 10, 2017 109   George Mason W 71-60 75%     25 - 7 +14.4 +7.0 +8.7
  Mar 11, 2017 88   Richmond W 87-77 OT 69%     26 - 7 +15.3 +9.2 +5.3
  Mar 12, 2017 49   Rhode Island L 63-70 48%     26 - 8 +3.9 +6.4 -3.7
Projected Record 26.0 - 8.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 81.6% 81.6% 10.3 0.0 0.5 3.9 11.0 27.5 35.5 3.3 18.4 81.6%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.6% 0.0% 81.6% 10.3 0.0 0.5 3.9 11.0 27.5 35.5 3.3 18.4 81.6%